Three St. Louis Cardinals players made the 2018 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot, but at least two of them may be one-and-dones. As Jay Jaffe of Sports Illustrated predicts that 2006 World Series champions, Chris Carpenter and Jason Isringhausen won’t receive at least 5 percent of the votes needed to remain eligible for 2019.

Jaffe developed his own measuring-stick statistic in 2012, to determine which players are worth of baseball’s HOF. The Jaffe Wins Above Replacement Score (JAWS), will “estimate a player’s total hitting, pitching and defensive value while accounting for the wide variations in scoring levels that have occurred throughout the game’s history and from ballpark to ballpark.”

Based on that score, Carpenter and Isringhausen will drop from the ballot when the final results are announced on January 24.

Carpenter’s career WAR is 34.5, which is nearly 40 points less than the after HOF starting pitcher’s career WAR of 73.9. Isringhausen’s 13.2 career WAR is more than 27 points short of the HOF relief pitching average of 40.6.

Carpenter and Isringhausen’s JAWS scores are 32 and 12.7, respectively – compared to the average hall of famer’s JAWS at their positions of 62.1 and 34.4, respectively.

Jaffe sums up Carpenter career:

“A lanky, 6′ 6″ righty who played a vital part on three St. Louis pennant winners and two world champions and won a Cy Young award as well, Chris Carpenter had seasons where he ranked among the game’s best pitchers. Unfortunately, he couldn’t stay healthy, but he might be the only pitcher who battled back from labrum surgery, Tommy John surgery and surgery to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome (to say nothing of the bone spurs and multiple nerve injuries he also endured). All told, he spent roughly 1,100 days on the disabled list, about one for every two regular season innings he threw in a career spanning from 1997–2012.”

He did the same for Izzy:

“Of the trio of Mets pitching prospects labeled “Generation K” in the mid-1990s—1991 second-round pick Bill Pulsipher, 1994 overall number one pick Paul Wilson and 1991 44th round pick Jason Isringhausen — the last of those was the only one to approach stardom. Despite being beset by numerous injuries and enduring three Tommy John surgeries (!), “Izzy” pitched in the majors for 16 years, making two All-Star teams and leading the NL in saves for a pennant-winning Cardinals squad.”

Here you can read their Hall of Fame bios

Also on the 2018 ballot is their teammate, Scott Rolen.

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